Quick hits
What moved, in brief.
The USMCA autos fight reaches its third round
US and Mexican negotiators sit down in Mexico City this week for the third bilateral round of the USMCA joint review, with the automotive rules of origin at the centre of it. Washington wants to lift the North American content threshold from 75% to 82% and carve out a new requirement that at least half a vehicle's value be sourced in the United States, alongside tighter checks on Chinese components routed through Mexican plants. For any agency that has sold nearshoring on a stable rulebook, the content maths a client models today is not the maths that will apply next year.
Rio Times: US-Mexico USMCA talks, third round July 20Memory-fab spending is heading for a record
SEMI expects global spending on 300mm fab equipment to grow at double digits in both 2026 and 2027, with outlays on memory tools alone passing $50 billion this year for the first time, driven by the AI build-out. The number matters to promotion agencies because it is the capital that has to land somewhere, and the places that win it are the ones that can offer power, water and a grid connection on the timeline a fab actually needs. Equipment budgets of this size are the demand signal behind every data-centre and semiconductor site pitch now in the market.
SEMI: Double-digit growth projected in 300mm fab equipment spendingThe transatlantic corridor keeps thickening
British and American firms invested about $43.4 billion across the Atlantic in 2025, supporting an estimated 55,000 jobs, and UK investment into the United States rose 48% by value on the year, according to BritishAmerican Business. It is a reminder that the largest, most durable FDI relationships are not the ones announced at ribbon-cuttings but the ones that compound quietly between two mature economies. Agencies fixated on the next frontier market often underweight the expansion capital sitting in their existing partner countries.
BritishAmerican Business: FDI across the Atlantic remains strongEthiopia books its strongest FDI year
Ethiopia drew $4.32 billion in foreign direct investment in the 2025/26 fiscal year, up 8% and a record on the Ethiopian Investment Commission's count, with exports from its special economic zones climbing 80% to $225 million. The reform story underneath is a new SEZ law that widens the zones from tax-holiday enclaves into free-trade, logistics and service hubs. The zone export figure is the one worth watching, because it measures whether the enclave is plugged into the economy or simply parked inside it.
ENA: Ethiopia attracts record $4.32 billion in FDI in 2025/26The cheapest FDI is the investor you already have
Cameroon's investment agency, working with UNIDO, surveyed 75 foreign-invested firms and found a base that is quietly ready to grow: $86 million already reinvested, nearly seven in ten planning to expand, and a fifth of the money earmarked for machinery and production lines. Ghana has built the same insight into an institution, winning WAIPA's Excellence in Aftercare Award for a division that treats existing investors as a pipeline rather than a filing cabinet. Today's deep dive is about why retention is the promotion work most agencies still underfund.
Business in Cameroon: Foreign investors planning $167m reinvestment pushCameroon audited the investors it already had, and found a pipeline it was not staffed to convert
The agencies winning the reinvestment game are not the ones with the best roadshow. They are the ones that pick up the phone to the firms already on the ground, and ask two blunt questions.
On 9 June, in Yaounde, Cameroon's Investment Promotion Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization put out a 144-page report that read less like a brochure than an audit. Its subject was not the investors Cameroon hopes to win but the ones it already has: 75 foreign-invested firms employing more than 24,000 people, many of them in the country for over two decades. The headline that travelled was the $166.8 million these firms plan to reinvest. The number that should have travelled is the $86.1 million they had already put back in, without anyone bidding for it.
Reinvested earnings are one of the least glamorous and most reliable sources of foreign investment. Across the world they make up roughly a third of inward FDI, and they arrive without an incentive auction, a site visit or a competing bid from the next country over. A firm already operating has sunk its costs, hired its people and learned the market; expanding is cheaper for the investor and far cheaper for the agency to land than a cold greenfield pitch. And yet almost every promotion agency budgets, staffs and measures itself around attraction, and treats the investors already inside the fence as someone else's job.
The Cameroon survey is useful because it puts a shape on the gap. Eighty-four percent of the firms landed in the report's high-confidence bands and nearly seven in ten said they intended to expand, but only 44% had a formal investment plan on paper. The export picture was starker: 73% operate in tradable sectors, yet just 23% export with any regularity. Confidence is abundant and cheap. A concrete, financed, permitted plan is scarce and expensive, and the distance between the two is precisely the work an aftercare officer is supposed to do.
Retention risk in Cameroon is also concentrated, which cuts both ways. Nearly half the surveyed firms qualified as strong anchors, and that group accounts for more than 92% of the jobs in the sample. Lose two or three of them and the national numbers move; keep them growing and a handful of expansions does more than a year of missions. The agency's interim head was candid that the firms wanted more from him, not less: better aftercare, and stronger engagement from the wider ecosystem of ministries, customs and utilities that an investor has to navigate to turn an intention into a factory line.
Ghana shows what it looks like to build that instinct into an institution rather than a survey. Its promotion centre runs a standing Aftercare Division, recently folded an investor-grievance function into it, and took home the Excellence in Aftercare Award at this year's WAIPA world investment conference. The grievance channel is the part worth copying: retention problems almost always surface as complaints, about a permit, a tax refund, a power connection, long before they surface as a quiet decision to expand in a different country. Handled early, a complaint is an early-warning system. Ignored, it is an exit interview nobody attended.
None of this requires a new agency or a bigger incentive budget. The survey itself is the cheap first move: it produces a ranked list of firms that want to grow and the specific barriers, standards, logistics, forex, permits, that are keeping their plans off paper. Pair that list with an export-readiness track and the same reinvesting firm that only sells at home becomes a firm that ships. The action for this week is smaller still. Pull your twenty largest existing investors by employment, call them, and ask the two questions the Cameroon survey asked: are you planning to expand, and what is stopping you.
Share of the 75 foreign-invested firms in the UNIDO-IPA Cameroon pilot survey at each stage, from stated confidence to concrete action. The fall-off from expansion intent to a formal investment plan, and the thin share that exports regularly despite most operating in tradable sectors, is the space aftercare is meant to close. Source: UNIDO and IPA Cameroon, Cameroon's Business Climate at a Glance, June 2026.
Why it matters for practitioners
- ◆Survey your existing base before you book the next roadshow. Reinvestment is about a third of global FDI and lands without a bidding war; a short perception survey turns it from a hope into a ranked, callable list.
- ◆The plan gap is the job. The distance between a firm that 'intends to expand' and one with a financed, permitted plan is where an aftercare officer earns their keep, so measure and close it deliberately.
- ◆Build a grievance channel into aftercare, as Ghana did. Retention problems arrive as complaints about permits, refunds and power connections first; catch them there and you keep the anchor.
- ◆Bolt export-readiness onto retention. Most reinvesting firms sell domestically; help with standards, logistics and finance and the same expansion becomes an export win as well as a jobs win.
Sources
- Business in Cameroon: Foreign investors planning $167m reinvestment push
- Ghana Investment Promotion Centre: Investor Aftercare
- GIPC: Ghana open for business, Simon Madjie one year on (aftercare and grievance)
- UNCTAD: Aftercare, reaching out to your investor community
- Rio Times: US-Mexico USMCA talks, third round July 20
- SEMI: Double-digit growth projected in 300mm fab equipment spending for 2026 and 2027
- BritishAmerican Business: FDI across the Atlantic remains strong (July 2026)
- ENA: Ethiopia attracts record $4.32 billion in FDI in 2025/26 fiscal year
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