The Doyen Brief
Local & Regional Development

Medellin's Record Year Rests on Its Worst Year

Medellin's investment agency booked a record year and a headline growth rate to match. The number worth copying is the seventeen-year cumulative underneath it. Plus the USMCA review lands with no clean extension, global FDI's 14% rebound is mostly plumbing, Vietnam's chip pile passes $14bn, and Gulf capital keeps coming home.

Quick hits

What moved, in brief.

01

The USMCA review arrives without a rubber stamp

The statutory 1 July deadline for the three governments to decide whether to extend the USMCA for another sixteen years passed with no clean early renewal. The review was launched only in March, bilaterally rather than trilaterally, and CSIS's base case is now a grind stretching into late 2026 over autos rules of origin, China-content limits, and labor enforcement. More than three-quarters of stakeholders who filed comments want the framework kept, so the fight is over the terms.

CSIS: USMCA Review 2026 — Six Scenarios for North America's Future
02

Global FDI rose 14% in 2025, mostly on paper

UNCTAD's latest Global Investment Trends Monitor puts 2025 FDI at about $1.6 trillion, up 14%. Strip out the conduit flows routed through a handful of financial centers and the underlying rise is closer to 5%. Flows to developing economies fell 2% to $877 billion, and the number of greenfield project announcements, the ones that build things, dropped 16%. Read any FDI headline by mode before you brief your minister on it.

UNCTAD: Global Investment Trends Monitor No. 50
03

Vietnam's semiconductor pile passes $14 billion

Cumulative FDI into Vietnam's semiconductor sector has reached roughly $14.2 billion across 241 projects, and in January state-run Viettel broke ground on the country's first domestic chip fabrication plant. Hanoi is layering targeted incentives on top of its labor-cost pitch. The packages winning frontier-tech projects now are sector-specific.

TechNode Global: Vietnam records $14.2B FDI in semiconductors
04

Saudi FDI climbs as Vision 2030 grinds on

Saudi Arabia's inbound FDI rose about 24% to roughly $31.7 billion, according to GASTAT figures reported this year, steady progress toward the Kingdom's Vision 2030 target even as it still trails the headline ambition. For agencies competing with the Gulf, the discipline matters more than the cash: a published national number, tracked and defended year over year, is itself a promotion tool.

Arab News: Saudi Arabia's FDI inflows rise 24% to $31.72bn
05

Morocco breaks ground on the region's first gigafactory

Construction of the $6.5-billion Gotion battery gigafactory in Kenitra begins this month, with first output pencilled for the third quarter. It is the first plant of its kind in the Middle East and Africa, wired to a dedicated 500MW ACWA Power wind-and-storage complex. The project is Morocco's bet that its auto-supplier base can climb from assembly into the battery chemistry that anchors the next decade of EV sourcing.

MICEPP (Morocco): Establishment of the first gigafactory in the MEA region
Deep dive · Local & Regional Development

Medellin's record year, and the number its peers should copy

A 266% jump makes a good press release and a bad benchmark. Underneath it sits two decades of institutional continuity, which is what lets an investor believe a promise will outlast the mayor who made it.

Medellin closed 2025 with $402 million in national and foreign investment and 11,211 jobs attached to it, a 266% jump on 2024, according to ACI Medellin, the metro area's investment and cooperation agency. It is the kind of figure that travels, the sort a competing city's promotion team screenshots and drops into a board deck under the heading 'what good looks like.' The prior year is the test. In 2024 the city booked $150 million and 1,759 jobs, a trough dug by national political uncertainty and an interest-rate environment that pushed capital decisions across Latin America into the following year. A record measured against your worst year is real, and it is not a step-change in underlying performance.

The durable figure sits one paragraph down and never makes the headline. Since 2008, ACI Medellin has managed roughly $4.08 billion in foreign direct investment and about 44,000 jobs across the Aburra Valley, on the order of 347 projects through 2023 plus the surge since. Against that seventeen-year record, 2025 reads as an above-trend year, since the long-run average is closer to $220 million. The cumulative track record is what an institutional investor is pricing when it commits to a first-year landing.

What produced the track record is a division of labor most cities never build. ACI does the outward-facing work: promoting the city abroad, building investor cases, and running landing agendas for the delegations that now arrive most weeks. Ruta N, the innovation agency created in 2009 by the mayor's office and the utility EPM, does the connective tissue, linking arriving firms to universities, recruiters, and training providers so a multinational finds talent and suppliers already in place rather than importing everything. It is why the World Economic Forum sited its Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, focused on AI and govtech, in Medellin, and why Antioquia now accounts for something like 41% of Colombia's startup growth. A landing sticks because there is a local economy to plug into.

The mechanism investors name most often is a standing table. The CEOs of the region's largest companies, the mayor, and the universities have sat down together, monthly, for years, to argue about how to grow the city. That habit is the product. It is what lets an investor believe a commitment will outlast the administration that signed it, in a country where the presidency changed hands at the end of May and where Medellin's Special District tax framework will have to survive whatever comes next. Continuity you can point to is worth more than an incentive you have to explain, because the incentive can be repealed by the next council and the continuity has not been.

None of which makes the city frictionless. English proficiency is a real constraint. Colombia ranks 74th of 116 on the EF index, and Medellin, though above the national mark, still trails its regional rivals, so client-facing operations arrive expecting to fund bootcamps and layer in bilingual staff under a hire-then-train model. Success has its own bill: digital nomads and foreign firms have pushed rents up in the fashionable neighborhoods, wages are climbing in the hottest skill sets, and the new deep-water Puerto Antioquia is a wildcard whose payoff isn't yet booked. A promotion agency that hides these loses the second meeting.

What is worth copying from Medellin is the architecture: an outward-facing promotion agency paired with a talent-and-supplier connector, both sitting under a cross-sector convening that makes commitments credible across election cycles, all measured over decades rather than quarters. That is harder to build than a tax holiday and harder for a rival to replicate. The number to put in the board deck is the seventeen-year line: $4.08 billion since 2008.

A strong year against a weak base
0 $M100 $M200 $M300 $M400 $M500 $M220 $M150 $M402 $M2008–23 avg20242025

Medellin's annual investment captured by ACI Medellin, US$ millions. The 2024 trough ($150m) makes 2025's $402m look like a 266% leap; measured against the roughly $220m annual average of the 2008–2023 period, it is a strong year rather than a transformation. Sources: ACI Medellin figures as reported by ColombiaOne and Nearshore Americas.

Why it matters for practitioners

  • Read every triple-digit growth stat by its base. Medellin's 266% sits on a depressed 2024; the figure that describes the city is the seventeen-year, $4.08bn cumulative. Before you benchmark a peer's 'record year', or let your board benchmark you against one, pull the prior year and the long-run average.
  • Your durable product is institutional continuity. Investors priced Medellin's monthly CEO-mayor-university table because it outlasts administrations. Audit whether your agency can point to a standing, cross-sector convening that survives elections. If not, building one is cheaper than a new tax break and far harder for rivals to copy.
  • Sell the local economy an arrival plugs into. Medellin pairs an outward-facing promoter (ACI) with a talent-and-supplier connector (Ruta N). If your city markets labor savings alone, you are one wage cycle away from losing the pitch.
  • What to do this week: name your city's single biggest weakness, which for Medellin is English, and put a concrete 'hire-then-train' answer to it directly in your investor deck.

Sources

Previous issue · Tuesday, June 30, 2026The CPTPP Admitted Costa Rica and Left China Waiting

Get the Brief in your inbox

Each issue is free and arrives the day it publishes.

You may unsubscribe at any time. We do not sell or share your details. Privacy policy.