The Doyen Brief
Investment Attraction

Every Agency Publishes Wins. Malaysia Publishes What Happened Next.

MIDA reports a realization rate: of 4,848 manufacturing projects it approved over five years, 84.9% are being built, 12% are still on paper and 3.1% walked away. Almost no other agency in the world will tell you that. Plus Washington declines to renew the USMCA, the UK-India deal enters into force this week, South Africa puts its zones on trial, data centers take a fifth of the world's greenfield capital, and Tokyo sets a 10-trillion-yen target for India.

Quick hits

What moved, in brief.

01

Washington will not renew the USMCA

The USMCA Free Trade Commission met on 1 July for the joint review written into the agreement, and the United States declined to renew it in its current form. The pact stays in force pending a resolution, and a third round of US-Mexico bilateral talks is set for the week of 20 July. For anyone who has spent three years selling nearshoring on the strength of a stable North American rulebook, the pitch now needs a scenario range.

USTR: Ambassador Greer issues statement on the USMCA joint review
02

The UK-India trade deal goes live on Wednesday

The free trade agreement signed in July 2025 enters into force on 15 July, cutting tariffs across goods and opening procurement and services channels between the two economies. Trade officers on both sides have one week to get exporters ready to claim the preferences: the paperwork for rules-of-origin certification is where most first-year benefit gets left on the table.

House of Commons Library: Progress on UK free trade agreement negotiations
03

South Africa puts its zones on the stand

The dtic hosts the International Special Zones Infrastructure and Investment Conference in Durban on 16 and 17 July, with the first SEZ Achievement Awards attached. The program's running tally: R31bn of investment from 224 companies and more than 28,000 direct jobs. Modest against the promises made when the zones were launched, and a useful reminder that a zone is an operating business that has to be run.

dtic: SA special economic zones to battle it out for top honours in inaugural achievement awards
04

Data centers now take a fifth of global greenfield capital

Announced FDI into data centers passed $270bn in 2025 and accounted for more than a fifth of all greenfield project value worldwide, on UNCTAD's preliminary count. Malaysia, Brazil, India and Thailand were named as emerging destinations. If your agency is chasing this, the questions that decide it are power, water and grid connection dates.

UNCTAD: Data centres are reshaping the global investment landscape
05

Tokyo and Delhi put a number on the next decade

The 16th India-Japan annual summit, held in New Delhi from 1 to 3 July during Prime Minister Takaichi's first visit, produced around 129 corporate agreements and a target of mobilising 10 trillion yen of Japanese investment into India over ten years, with a joint roadmap on semiconductors, quantum, clean energy and supply chains. Targets of this kind are political scaffolding. They also create a queue of Japanese firms with a mandate to look, and that queue is worth meeting.

ANI: India, Japan target mobilising 10 trillion yen in Japanese investment into India over next decade
Deep dive · Investment Attraction

The bravest number an IPA can publish is what happened to the projects it already won

MIDA's annual conference led with a record RM426.7bn of approvals. Buried further down was an audit of what became of five years of them. Most agencies do not track this. The ones that do get better at their job, for reasons that have nothing to do with the press release.

Investment promotion has a measurement problem that everyone in the profession knows about and almost nobody fixes. Agencies are funded, judged and rewarded on what they announce. The announcement is a promise: a board decision, a letter of intent, an approved incentive package, a number read out at a podium. Whether the plant gets built is somebody else's problem, usually two ministers and three years later. The gap between the two is where credibility quietly drains away, and it is why finance ministries have grown skeptical of promotion budgets.

Malaysia has started closing that gap in public. At its annual media conference in March, the Malaysian Investment Development Authority reported RM426.7bn of approved investments for 2025, an 11% rise and the highest on record, across 8,390 projects with 244,902 jobs attached. That is the headline any agency would lead with. MIDA then reported that of the 4,848 manufacturing projects approved by the National Committee on Investment between 2021 and 2025, 84.9% have reached some stage of implementation, whether producing, building the factory or installing machinery. Another 12% are still in planning, working through site selection and developer talks. And 3.1% were abandoned outright.

That last figure costs an agency something to publish. Every abandoned project was once a win. Somebody flew to a headquarters, negotiated a package, secured a signature and put out a release. To then go back and mark it as dead, in an official document, in front of a press corps and an opposition, is an act of institutional self-discipline that most promotion agencies would never survive internally. MIDA also disclosed that projects approved in 2025 are only 62.2% implemented, which sounds bad until you note the agency's own explanation: manufacturing projects typically need 18 to 24 months to move from approval to ground, so a fresh cohort should look unfinished. That, too, is a number that invites attack and holds up under it.

The discipline exists because Malaysia was forced into it. Local economists have spent years pointing out that MIDA's approved foreign investment is not the same thing as the foreign direct investment the statistics department records in the balance of payments, and that conflating the two flatters the government. It is a fair criticism, and MIDA now prints an explainer of the difference at the bottom of its own press releases. The realization rate is the answer to the criticism. If you are going to report approvals, you owe the public an account of how many of them turn into concrete.

The measurement then changes the behavior, which is the real argument for it. Once an agency is accountable for realization rather than approval, everything downstream of the signature stops being someone else's job. Malaysia's answer is a stack of facilitation machinery that only makes sense if you are being graded on completions: the Invest Malaysia Facilitation Center, and a talent facilitation task force pulling in 17 ministries and academic institutions because the projects were stalling on engineers. All of it exists to move projects from the 12% column to the 84.9% one.

A realization rate can be gamed as easily as any other metric, by defining implementation loosely, by quietly dropping projects from the denominator, or by approving only the safe ones. Malaysia's own categories are broad: machinery installation counts, and so does factory construction. But a soft number published is still worth more than a hard number withheld, because publishing it creates a constituency inside the agency for the boring post-approval work that nobody gets promoted for. Most agencies could construct their own version this quarter from files they already hold. Very few will, because the first honest answer is likely to be embarrassing.

What happened to five years of approvals
0% of approved projects20% of approved projects40% of approved projects60% of approved projects80% of approved projects100% of approved projects84.9% of approved projects12% of approved projects3.1% of approved projectsImplemented or underwayStill in planningAbandoned

Status of the 4,848 manufacturing projects approved by Malaysia's National Committee on Investment, 2021 to 2025. Implementation includes projects in production, in factory construction and in machinery installation. Projects approved in 2025 alone sit at 62.2% implementation, consistent with an 18 to 24 month build cycle. Source: MIDA Annual Media Conference, March 6, 2026.

Why it matters for practitioners

  • Report a realization rate. Take one closed cohort, the projects you approved or announced three years ago, and classify every one of them: in production, under construction, still planning, dead. That single table tells your minister more about your agency than any annual total, and it is the only credible defense of a promotion budget when the finance ministry comes looking.
  • Name the owner of the post-approval journey. Realization rates only move if somebody is accountable for the eighteen months after the signature. Malaysia stood up a facilitation center and a talent task force spanning 17 institutions because that is where projects were dying. If nobody in your organization is graded on completions, nobody is doing this work.
  • Publish the denominator and define your terms. A realization rate is only honest if you say what counts as implemented, what counts as abandoned, and how many projects were in the cohort. Loose definitions and a disappearing denominator turn the metric into a second press release.
  • What to do this week: pull the list of projects your agency announced in 2023 and call each company. Ask one question, whether the facility is operating, and record the answer. You will have a realization rate by Friday and a retention list by Monday, because the firms that stalled are the ones a competitor is currently courting. The Doyen thread on aftercare as a pipeline has the call script.

Sources

Previous issue · Saturday, July 11, 2026The Dominican Republic Booked a Fourth Straight FDI Record

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