The Doyen Brief
Trade & Export Development

The declaration was the easy part. Latin America and Africa finally built the shipping lane.

Two regions have promised each other partnership for twenty years and let three summits lapse. Colombia has just done the one thing that changes an exporter's arithmetic: a direct Atlantic route that cuts out the European middleman, backed by a strategy with real programming behind it. Plus a US utility buys into Texas gigawatts, Poland wins more projects but smaller ones, India stands up a $2.9 billion export mission, and Indonesia rewrites the job description of its economic zones.

Quick hits

What moved, in brief.

01

A US utility buys its way into Texas gigawatts, and the site-selection lesson travels

National Grid Ventures took a 35% stake in Joulent for about $1.75 billion on 1 July, tied to Project Kilby, a 2.67 GW gas-fired generation campus in Reeves County, Texas built to serve large-load data-centre demand. The deal is the clearest sign yet that power, not land or incentives, is the binding constraint on the AI build-out, and that the winners are places where firm capacity can be delivered in two years rather than seven. For any agency pitching a data-centre site, the question in the room is now megawatts and a connection date.

PR Newswire: National Grid Ventures to invest $1.75bn in Joulent
02

Poland keeps winning projects. They are getting smaller.

Poland recorded 285 foreign investment projects in 2025, up 10% and a strong showing by European standards, and it climbed to joint sixth on EY's 2026 attractiveness survey, named by 17% of 500 executives alongside the Netherlands. The caveat is in the mix: the jobs tied to those projects fell sharply as the large, capital-heavy investments thinned out and smaller, lighter ones took their place. A rising deal count with a falling value per deal is a quieter problem than a slowdown, and a harder one to explain to a minister.

XYZ: EY finds solid FDI inflows into Poland but fewer big projects
03

India puts $2.9 billion behind its smallest exporters

India's Cabinet approved an Export Promotion Mission with an outlay of about 25,060 crore rupees, roughly $2.9 billion, running to 2030-31 and split between export promotion and market direction. Ten of its eleven interventions are already live, and the design is pointed squarely at MSMEs, first-time exporters and firms in low-export-intensity regions, with subsidised credit, factoring, certification support and logistics help. It is a reminder that the frontier of export promotion is less the trade mission than the plumbing that lets a small firm ship its first container.

PMIndia: Cabinet approves Export Promotion Mission, outlay 25,060 crore
04

Indonesia rewrites what its economic zones are for

Jakarta is repositioning its 25 special economic zones from tax-holiday enclaves into export-oriented, integrated platforms for manufacturing, logistics and technology, part of a broader industrial-policy shift. The incentive sheet is still generous, corporate-tax holidays of ten to twenty years for qualifying investment, but the framing has moved from what an investor avoids paying to what the zone plugs them into. It is the right correction, and one plenty of zone programmes elsewhere still need to make.

ASEAN Briefing: Indonesia's special economic zones, a structural shift
05

Latin America and Africa put a shipping lane where a summit used to be

At March's first ministerial CELAC-Africa forum in Bogotá, Colombia and Ghana agreed a direct maritime route between Cartagena and Tema, skipping the European hubs that have long taxed transatlantic South-South cargo with extra time and cost. It lands as Colombia's non-mineral exports to Africa jump 112% in a year. Today's deep dive is about why the route, and not the communiqué, is the part worth watching.

Trade Finance Global: CELAC-Africa ties deepen amid surge in Colombian exports
Deep dive · Trade & Export Development

Latin America and Africa have signed this partnership before. What is different this time is a shipping lane, not a communiqué.

CELAC sends Africa three-tenths of one percent of global trade, and three earlier summits since 2006 came to nothing. Colombia's answer is not another declaration. It is an export strategy with programming behind it and a direct Cartagena-to-Tema route that takes the European transshipment tax out of the crossing. For any agency building a market from near zero, the sequence is the lesson: fix the artery before you book the delegation.

Start with the number that should keep the ambition honest. The 33 economies of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States together send Africa about 0.3% of global trade, on the WTO's reckoning, and the flow in the other direction is smaller still. Against a figure that small, the temptation is to reach for the grand gesture, and in March the region duly staged one: the first ministerial-level CELAC-Africa forum, in Bogotá, bringing CELAC's members together with delegates from 19 African states around the language of South-South solidarity. The forum was real and useful. It was also, on its own, the cheapest part of the whole enterprise.

History is the reason to be wary of the photograph. Latin America and Africa have convened before, at the Africa-South America summits of 2006 in Abuja, then 2009 and 2013, each opening with the same complementarity and the same goodwill, and each failing to carry the momentum past the closing statement. For a trade practitioner the lesson is unglamorous and important: a communiqué is not a market, and a declaration of partnership creates no orders. The question to ask of the Bogotá forum is therefore not whether the speeches were good. It is what was signed underneath them that an exporter can actually use.

Colombia's answer is the part worth studying, because it is a working example of an agency building demand rather than announcing it. Bogota is the only capital in the region with a formal, dated Africa Strategy, running 2022 to 2026, and it has put programming behind the paper. ProColombia's Ella Exporta a Africa has walked more than a hundred women-led companies into African markets, the unglamorous cohort-by-cohort work of turning a first-time exporter into a repeat one. The result shows in the numbers: Colombia's non-mining, non-energy exports to Africa reached $296.5 million in 2025, up 112% on the year, carried by coffee, bananas, machinery, paper and apparel. That last detail matters more than the growth rate. A country better known for selling Africa hydrocarbons is now selling it processed goods and light manufactures, which is the diversification every commodity exporter says it wants and few actually book.

Then comes the piece that separates this attempt from the summits that faded: a route. At the forum, Colombia and Ghana agreed to open a direct maritime line between Cartagena and Tema, bypassing the European and North American hubs through which South Atlantic cargo has long been forced to transship. That detail is easy to skip past and it is the whole game. Transshipment is a tax on distance paid in days and dollars, and it falls hardest on exactly the perishable and lighter-margin goods, the coffee, the fruit, the consumer products, that a diversifying exporter is trying to move. A direct lane rewrites the cost model in a way no ministerial declaration can. Corridors, not communiqués, are what change an investor's or an exporter's arithmetic, and the agency that understands the difference spends its political capital on the former.

What would make it stick is the least exciting work of all: institutionalisation and demand. The pull is genuinely there. Africa is a net food importer whose population is heading toward 2.5 billion by 2050, and the Development Bank of Latin America and the African Union have just published their first joint report, which reads less like a diplomatic text than a business plan for a relationship left too long on the shelf. The private sector is moving ahead of the treaties, through bodies like the Latin African Chamber of Commerce. And the macro tailwind is real: South-South trade has more than doubled since 2007, to roughly $5.6 trillion in 2023. The risk is the old one, that the agenda rides on the political will of one administration and lapses with it. The fix is to embed it in standing institutions, calendars and budgets, which is precisely what a proposed heads-of-state CELAC-Africa summit in Addis Ababa next year is meant to begin.

For practitioners with no stake in either region, the export lesson generalises cleanly. Building a market from near zero is a sequence, not a splash. Read the counterpart's structural gap and sell into it, a net food importer wants agri-food and light manufacturing, not another mining pitch. Fund the on-ramp, the cohorts, the market intelligence, the first-container financing, because that is where first-time exporters actually convert. And spend disproportionately on the logistics artery, because a corridor that removes a fortnight and a transshipment fee does more for your exporters than a year of delegations. The declaration is the most photographed document in the file and the least important. Colombia's contribution is to have treated it that way.

The growth is the signal; the base is why a single route matters
0 $M50 $M100 $M150 $M200 $M250 $M300 $M139.9 $M296.5 $M20242025

Colombia's non-mining and non-energy exports to Africa, in millions of US dollars. The 2025 figure of $296.5 million is a 112% jump on roughly $140 million in 2024, led by coffee, bananas, machinery, paper and apparel. Yet the whole of CELAC still sends Africa only about 0.3% of global trade, which is why taking a transshipment leg out of the crossing counts for more than another summit. Sources: Colombian Ministry of Trade via Finance Colombia and Trade Finance Global; WTO.

Why it matters for practitioners

  • What to do this week: map the corridor before you fund the campaign. Before booking another trade mission into a distant market, trace the actual shipping and transshipment path your exporters use and price the penalty in days and dollars. A direct lane or a consolidation point often moves more volume than another delegation, and it is the cheaper thing to lobby for.
  • Build the on-ramp, not just the brochure. Colombia's growth came from a dated strategy plus programming, Ella Exporta a Africa, that took first-time and women-led firms into African markets one cohort at a time. Fund the accelerator and the market intelligence, not only the pavilion, because that is where a first-time exporter becomes a repeat one.
  • Institutionalise or repeat 2006, 2009 and 2013. Bi-regional trade agendas die when they ride on a single administration's enthusiasm. Push to embed the commitment in standing bodies, fixed summit calendars and line-item budgets so it survives the next election on either side.
  • Sell into the structural gap, not around it. Africa is a net food importer with a population heading to 2.5 billion by 2050; the LatAm lines that are working are agri-food and light manufacturing. Match your export offer to what the counterpart cannot make enough of. Our Doyen Report on building export corridors sets out how to sequence the logistics, the financing and the cohorts.

Sources

Previous issue · Friday, 17 July 2026Five flags, one pitch. Central Asia is marketing itself as a single market, and one country holds most of the capital.

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